CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ANTARCTIC MARINE ENVIRONMENT: MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS

This paper discusses some of the implications of climate change and how these concerns necessitate that CEP and CCAMLR address a number of key issues if both organisations are to fulfil their international obligations. We suggest that in order for CEP and CCAMLR to undertake their respective schedules of work, it will be essential for them to try to determine the relative risks (uncertainty), impacts and timescales, of the various processes consequent on climate change. With current levels of understanding, such a risk assessment should be feasible and should provide a focus for future work. As part of this process, we consider that it will be important to focus on issues that reduce uncertainty by the greatest amount. All of the risks described in this paper probably vary with latitude and longitude, with regional climate change, with local intensity of fishing or tourism, and with local foodweb structure, etc.. Therefore, a plan for the future would likely involve delegated responsibility (e.g. to CEP, or CCAMLR, or SCAR) for each of the risks described.