Towards developing a feedback management procedure for the Antarctic krill fishery

We present a feedback strategy, founded on CEMP data, to adjust the catch limit and the spatial distribution of fishing activity for Antarctic krill in Statistical Area 48. The CEMP currently provides decades-long baseline time series and useful contrasts across areas and species that are both relevant to making inference about the potential for competition between krill-dependent predators and the fishery and are sensitive to changes in the marine ecosystem (e.g. series that indicate predator abundance and condition). A feedback management approach can use ‘hockey-stick’ models that define decision rules for adjustments to the fishery and can be parameterized from empirical observations collected at CEMP sites (e.g. relationships between animal condition and subsequent survival). If a feedback strategy for the krill fishery includes comparison of predator performance in no-fishing areas, these decision rules can help the Commission respond to changes that are attributable to the impacts of fishing alone. If fishing occurs everywhere, these decision rules can facilitate responses to cumulative changes in the ecosystem.