Trends of the Dissostichus eleginoides stock using the sequential population analysis (SPA) model in Subarea 48.3: 1992-1996

This paper presents a model of Sequential Population Analysis (SPA), based in catch at age data, for the evaluation of the state of the stock of Dissostichus eleginoides from the area 48.3 between 1992 to 1996. This, with the objective of knowing the results of management of this stock made under CCAMLR procedures. The model was programmed in a spreadsheet (Excel v.5) using the Solver function for the non-lineal calculus process. The application of this model, tuned by auxiliary information of effort, shows that the estimation of recruitment and the level of the TAG are extremely similar to those calculated by the WG-FSA in 1995 when F2/3 was applied, which allowed height level of spawning biomass per recruit escape. This event was even higher than that suggested by the rule of decision γl of CCAMLR. By other hand, the descent trends in Total, Fishable and Spawning Biomass showed a stabilization during the last year (1996) in relation to the previous ones. This result supports the idea that the use of the stochastic projections adopted by consensus last year, has produced an appropriate and promising assessment.